The model has projected 26,000 U.S. Kavid-19 deaths this year as the best case scenario

SATEL (NEXSTER / AP) – A newly released model predicts that the death toll from COVID-19 in the United States will more than double under the most promising scenario by the end of the year, with the death toll rising in the Northern Hemisphere in most cases.

Forecasts from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington suggest a possible global peak of about 30,000 deaths per day this December, with the United States topping 2,900 deaths per day this month.

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The White House and media outlets have been cited since March for modeling from the Health Metrics and Evaluation Institute, but critics say the epidemic underestimated frequent casualties in the early days of the epidemic.

The new set of projections is divided into the best case scenario for most countries and the worst case scenario. In all three cases, India is expected to surpass the United States as the world’s leading country in terms of deaths.

At best, the order of the mask and social distance could save thousands of lives, but there is “massive COVID exhaustion” among world government leaders due to the economic downturn, says Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute of Health. The Matrix told reporters on Friday.

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Most of the world’s population lives in the Northern Hemisphere. Respiratory illnesses peak in the winter months, a CO tur effect is expected to be true in the case of COVID-19. Disease models are based on assumptions about human behavior, so there is a lot of uncertainty here.

Even if a vaccine proves to be safe and effective, there will not be enough time to distribute the vaccine to change the unpredictable forecast, Murray said.

The lower end of the model suggests that the United States will lose an estimated 288,381 inhabitants in COVID-19 by January 1st. On the opposite end, the death toll in the worst case scenario could be more than 600,00.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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